Share: In 2021, home prices went up 16.9% over 2020, which was the highest increase since 1999, according to the National Association of REALTORs®. And Zillow predicts that home prices will continue to climb in 2022, with a 17.3% increase by January 2023.
At the national level, the gap between home buying costs and rent widened in 2022. Overall, first-time home buyers paid an average of $561 more per month than the median renter ($2,437 versus $1,876) in June. That monthly discrepancy compared to $171 ($1,815 versus $1,644, respectively) in 2021.
According to Zillow Research, the supply of homes may not catch up to historical levels until around 2024. In a survey of housing experts, the majority believe home inventories will reach pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2024.
In general, buying a home during a recession will get you a better deal. The number of foreclosures or owners who have to sell to stay afloat increases, typically leading to more homes available on the market and lower home prices.
Real estate experts advise that a strategic waiting game might be the best plan for buyers seeking to take advantage of the recent dip in borrowing costs.
Unsurprisingly, many home buyers are left wondering: Is buying a house still worth it in 2022? The short answer is yes. If you're financially ready, buying a house is still worth it — even in the current market. Experts largely agree that buying and owning a home remains a smarter financial move than renting for many.
The pent-up demand is waning – While there are always people wanting to move house and many delayed their plans over the last few years because of Covid, there are only so many buyers and sellers out there and there will be fewer looking to buy in 2022.
Yep, it's looking like the number of houses on the market in the second half of 2022 will continue to be low. Total housing inventory at the end of May was 1.16 million, which is a 4.1% decline from May 2021.
There's no consensus when it comes to 2023 housing forecasts. Firms like CoreLogic, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Zillow are all still forecasting positive home price growth over the coming year.
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase on a month-over-month basis by 0.6% from June 2022 to July 2022 and on a year-over-year basis by 4.3% from June 2022 to June 2023. Nationally, home prices increased 18.3% year over year in June 2022. No states posted an annual decline in home prices.
Housing Market Forecast 2024 and 2025
The diminishing supply of available properties has been a major contributor. Most panel members predict housing inventory to reach pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2024. The share of first-time buyers is predicted to stay below 2019 levels until 2024.
We Expect the Fed to Pivot to Cutting Interest Rates in 2023
We project the federal-funds rate to fall from a peak 3% at the start of 2023 to 1.5% by 2024. Accordingly, longer-term yields—including mortgage rates— should fall as well. Falling inflation should clear the way for the Fed to cut interest rates.
Zillow says that despite a projected home value appreciation growth of 19.5% in 2021, home value growth will still end up at about 11% in 2022. It'll still end up being one of the strongest years in real estate history. Home sales should total 6.35 million, the highest number of home sales since 2006.
The overall cost of homeownership tends to be higher than renting even if your mortgage payment is lower than the rent. Here are some expenses you'll be spending money on as a homeowner that you generally do not have to pay as a renter: Property taxes. Trash pickup (some landlords require renters to pay this)
Meanwhile, Moody's Analytics predicts 178 regional housing markets are likely to see home prices decline in 2023.
The property website initially predicted house price growth to slow to 5% for 2022, but has since revised this to 7%. This projection comes because housing stock is at a record low and is struggling to meet buyer demand. Capital Economics predicts prices will fall 5% over the next two years.
As prices become unsustainable and interest rates rise, purchasers withdraw. Borrowers are discouraged from taking out loans when interest rates rise. On the other side, house construction will be affected as well; costs will rise, and the market supply of housing will shrink as a result.
Actually, economists do not think it will. Housing economists point to five main reasons that the market will not crash anytime soon: low inventory, lack of new-construction housing, large amounts of new buyers, strict lending standards and a drop in foreclosures.
This is largely a consequence of the Covid-19 pandemic, which both slowed down home construction and increased the demand for homes due to the near 0% interest rates.
Essentially, no one can predict when the stock market is going to crash and be 100% accurate. Inflation and interest rates may choke off a rally before it gains momentum, making July 2022 a dead cat bounce and pushing the market into a free-fall.
In inflationary times, it's especially important to invest your money in an asset that traditionally holds its value or grows in value. Historically, home price appreciation outperformed inflation in most decades going all the way back to the '70s, making home ownership a historically strong hedge against inflation.
In September 2021, estate agent Hamptons predicted a house price rise of 3.5% in 2022, 3% in 2023 and 2.5% in 2024. Property consultancy Cluttons suggest that in some parts of London, prices could fall by as much as 10% next year. Foxtons predict growth of between 1 and 3% in London.
Money supply and interest rates have a reciprocated relationship. A larger money supply lowers interest rates, making it less expensive for consumers to borrow. There is a ripple effect as: the more the supply of cheap credit, the higher the demand, and the lower the housing prices.