It will likely take a while before the inventory of available homes matches up with demand. Experts surveyed by Zillow predicted it'll be two years before monthly inventory returns to pre-pandemic norms. They estimated it could be 2024 or 2025 before the portion of first-time buyers again reaches the 45% seen in 2019.
Meanwhile, Moody's Analytics predicts 178 regional housing markets are likely to see home prices decline in 2023. The biggest forecasted 2024 home price drops are in The Villages, Fla.
Experts in a recent Zillow Research survey believe the inventory of housing to return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2024. Despite soaring mortgage rates pushing down demand for homes, real estate prices are still sky-high.
There is a low risk of another U.S. housing market correction, and J.P. Morgan Research forecasts that home prices will increase 12.5% in 2022. House prices climbed around 20% in the last year, according to data from the CoreLogic Home Prices Index Report, the Federal Housing Finance Agency and Case-Shiller.
We Expect the Fed to Pivot to Cutting Interest Rates in 2023
We project the federal-funds rate to fall from a peak 3% at the start of 2023 to 1.5% by 2024. Accordingly, longer-term yields—including mortgage rates— should fall as well. Falling inflation should clear the way for the Fed to cut interest rates.
In general, buying a home during a recession will get you a better deal. The number of foreclosures or owners who have to sell to stay afloat increases, typically leading to more homes available on the market and lower home prices.
Now is a good time to buy a house — and U.S. consumers agree. According to Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey, more than two-thirds of today's renters would buy a home if their lease ended. Most expect rents to rise sharply into 2023. The housing market may favor buyers now, too.
As prices become unsustainable and interest rates rise, purchasers withdraw. Borrowers are discouraged from taking out loans when interest rates rise. On the other side, house construction will be affected as well; costs will rise, and the market supply of housing will shrink as a result.
Prices Will Be Much Higher
It's almost a given that in spite of current high prices, houses will cost even more 10 years down the line. According to RenoFi, the cost of a single-family home in the U.S. is likely to hit $382,000 by 2030.
"Each forecast since then—the March forecast and then the June forecast—we've increased the decline that we expected," McGill said. "So we now expect about a 4 percent decline in 2023 and we expect a 5 percent decline in 2024, and that's on the existing home sales side.
The company's analysts expect home prices to drop the lowest in these areas in 2023: The Villages, Florida (6.96 percent) Punta Gorda, Florida (6 percent) Reno (5.57 percent)
When will housing prices drop? Home prices have been rising sharply for years. And while the heated market may cool down a bit, it's not likely to experience an equally sharp drop soon. Greg McBride, CFA, Bankrate's chief financial analyst, says a plateauing of prices is more likely than a steep fall.
The Mortgage Bankers Association expects rates to average 4.8% by the end of this year and to decrease to an average of 4.6% by 2024. This is based on a forecasted decrease of stabilizing yields on the 10-year treasury note, which are closely tied to mortgage rates.
Demand for homes is high, but inventory is low, making this a seller's market across the country. A seller's market happens when there are more prospective buyers than homes for sale. The stiff competition for homes means fewer choices, higher prices and quicker sales.
Interest Rates Are Going Up
In 2021, interest rates reached historic lows, making buying a home a more attractive option. However, the Federal Reserve is now raising interest rates for the first time in 2 years to help combat inflation.
During the recession that followed the 2008 global financial crisis, house prices fell consistently across all regions until the spring of 2009. The national average drop was 21% during this time, with regional variations ranging from 20% to 26% (not including Northern Ireland).
If you're looking for a sweet spot between peak season and winter, consider buying in August or September. In early fall, inventory is still abundant, but the market has cooled off enough for you to negotiate a good price.
As we've talked about, the summer months are busiest for real estate and they usually have the highest units sold on the market. The sale prices are the highest in the summertime and the house prices start to go down in fall and pick back up in the next spring.
Quickly rising interest rates tend to slow home price appreciation.
A Bloomberg poll of economists in mid-June found they expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in late 2024. In the meantime, while today's rates may be a substantial increase from 2020's rate environment, rates are still fairly low compared to prior historical levels.
In its latest housing forecast, the Mortgage Bankers Association predicts the 30-year rate will average 5% this year and fall to 4.4% by 2024.
In fact, a recent New York Federal Reserve housing survey found that 30-year mortgage rates are expected to rise to 6.7% before 2023 and to 8.2% by 2025. And some experts predict it's going to go even higher.